If you've been wondering where our industry is headed, independent analyst firm JupiterResearch recently released its 2005-2010 U.S. email marketing forecast, and the news looks good. Among its findings, Jupiter predicts the volume of spam will continue to shrink, while email marketing spending will continue to grow.
Following a peak in 2003, when spam accounted for 44 percent of the email consumers received, Jupiter says that the total amount of spam per active email address will continue to steadily decline, from 3,253 messages in 2005 to just 1,640 messages by 2010. Jupiter attributes the expected drop to improvements in ISP filtering as well as progress in identity and reputation systems.
During that same time, email marketing spending will increase from $917 million to more than $1.1 billion. Jupiter predicts spending on retention email will continue to account for the greatest share of the total spend, while on a percentage basis, the biggest growth will come from transactional email.
Although spending on retention email is expected to grow, the average amount of retention email that consumers receive in their primary email accounts is expected to remain relatively flat -- a condition Jupiter attributes to the transitional nature of email accounts and the persistent churn of email subscriptions. For example, during the last six months, about one-in-five consumers created a new email account, and the percentage of users that subscribed to email promotions and newsletters was roughly equivalent to the percentage that unsubscribed. These trends will probably continue to impact overall volume, resulting in relatively stable rates, Jupiter said.